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Document Control Project: Spring Valley Retail Units, Isle of Man Client: Morbaine Ltd Job Number: A049309 File Origin:
Document Checking:
| Prepared by: | Kevin Hodgson | Signed: | | --- | --- | --- | | | | |
| Checked by: | Signed: | | --- | --- | | | |
Verified by: Signed:
| Issue | Date | Status | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 09/02/2012 | Final | | 2 | | | | 3 | | | | 4 | | |
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1.0 INTRODUCTION ..... 1 2.0 TRADING EFFECTS ..... 2 Introduction ..... 2 Turnover of Centres ..... 2 Turnover of Proposed Development ..... 3 Trade Draw ..... 3 Impact ..... 4 3.0 SUMMARY ..... 5
Appendix A - Statistical Table
1.01 This statement has been prepared following correspondence between the applicant and officers at the Department of Infrastructure at the Isle of Man Government regarding the policy requirement for a retail impact assessment to accompany the above application for planning permission. This is despite the very small increase in floorspace proposed. It has been agreed that such an assessment should be prepared to accord with Business Policy 9 of the Strategic Plan 2007. 1.02 Planning permission was granted in February 2010 for the erection of retail units with ancillary car parking and servicing, following an appeal. Planning conditions restricted the total net retail floorspace to 1,672 \mathrm{sq} . \mathrm{m}. to be sub-divided into no more than two retail units. 1.03 One of the units has been occupied by the retailer Pets at Home and occupies 635 sq.m. net floorspace. The electrical retailer Currys/PC World wish to occupy the other unit and, to accommodate their specific requirements, a mezzanine floor is proposed. The overall net retail floorspace required by Currys/PC World is 1,144 \mathrm{sq} . \mathrm{m}. 1.04 Therefore, the combined net retail floorspace is 1,779 \mathrm{sq} . \mathrm{m}., 107 sq.m. above the level of floorspace permitted in 2010. 1.05 In light of the above, it is considered relevant to specifically examine the trading effects associated with the development as proposed, and compare this with the retail impact analysis presented at the Inquiry in 2010. This will allow the Department of Infrastructure to assess whether there is a material difference between the consented and proposed schemes.
2.01 This section of the Statement considers the potential trading effects of the proposed development on the island's town centres.
2.02 The analysis follows the same methodology as the retail impact assessment presented to the 2010 Inquiry and accepted by the Inspector. There is a slight difference:
2.03 In the 2010 analysis, the future occupiers of the units were not known. Therefore, individual assessments of the potential trade diversion associated with different types of bulky goods retailers was carried out (the goods types being: carpets; flooring; car accessories; bicycles; camping equipment; electrical goods; DIY goods; pet supplies; and furniture). Then, because there were two units proposed, the potential combinations were considered (e.g. the two units could be occupied by one furniture retailer and one electrical retailer). Finally, the impact of the 'worst case' combination was considered for each town on the island, having regard to the level of competitive overlap with the retail offer in that town.
2.04 However, in this Statement, the two retailers, and the level of floorspace to be occupied by each, is known. This means that a more accurate assessment can be made of the turnover of the proposed development and the potential trading effects on shopping patterns on the island.
2.05 The statistical tables referred to hereafter are contained in the appendix.
2.06 Table 1 sets out the estimated turnovers of town centres on the Isle of Man and out of centre facilities. The calculations are based on the net retail floorspace figures provided in the Isle of Man Retail Study 2009 (prices are indexed to 2007 for consistency with the previous analysis).
Retail Impact Statement Morbaine Ltd February 2012 2.07 The table shows that Douglas town centre has a retail turnover of over £ 183 \mathrm{~m}, and other retail facilities in out-of-centre locations in Douglas have a combined turnover of around £ 68 \mathrm{~m}. 2.08 Ramsey ( £ 42 \mathrm{~m} ) is the second largest centre in terms of retail turnover on the island, followed by Peel ( £ 24 \mathrm{~m} ), Port Erin ( £ 18 \mathrm{~m} ), and Onchan ( £ 16 \mathrm{~m} ). Castletown ( £ 7 \mathrm{~m} ), Laxey ( £ 3 \mathrm{~m} ) and Port St Mary ( £ 2 \mathrm{~m} ) have the lowest retail turnovers.
2.09 Table 2 provides an estimate of the turnover of each of the retail units. The turnover estimates are calculated using company average sales densities for Pets at Home and Currys (taken from Mintel's Retail Rankings 2011, based on published accounts, and indexed to 2007 prices). 2.10 It is estimated that Pets at Home will have a turnover of £ 1.49 \mathrm{~m} and Currys will have a turnover of £ 7.16 \mathrm{~m}.
2.11 Tables 3 and 4 show the potential trading effects of the proposed development on existing retail facilities on the Isle of Man. The trade draw assumptions have regard to the location of existing retailers selling the same types of goods, the size and quality of such stores, and their relative proximity to the application site. 2.12 For example, Table 3 shows the potential trading effects of the Pets at Home store. The largest and closest pet stores to the appeal site are at Eden Park Garden Centre and at the Isle of Man Farmers Association. These two shops have a combined floorspace of around 300sq.m., they sell bulky pet products and have dedicated car parking. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the new Pets at Home store would compete directly with these outlets and Table 3 assumes that a
total of 35 % of our turnover will be diverted from them ( 20 % from "Douglas Out-of-Centre" representing Eden Park and 15% from "Others on Island" representing the Farmers Association). 2.13 It is assumed that a further 10 % of trade will be drawn from the pet store at Tynwald Mills, mainly due to the type of goods that this store sells and the adjacent car parking. 2.14 The remaining 55 % of trade draw will be dispersed across those town centres on the island which have stores selling pet products. 2.15 The final three columns of Table 3 show the effects of the trade draw and express the 'impact' as a percentage. The table shows that the highest impact on any town centre will be just 0.9 % (on Onchan). 2.16 The exercise is repeated at Tables 4 for the Currys unit.
2.17 Table 5 considers the potential combined effects of Pets at Home and Currys. 2.18 The final two columns of this table compare the impact of the current proposals with the estimated impacts presented to the 2010 Inquiry and accepted by the Inspector. The impact levels are broadly similar, as to be expected when only 107 sq.m. of additional floorspace is proposed. 2.19 The impact levels are slightly higher in Douglas Town Centre, Peel, Castletown, Ramsey and Port Erin but lower in Onchan, Port St Mary, Laxey, Tynwald Mills and in non-central shops on the island. The highest impact level is 5.1 % on Castletown. The inspector previously accepted an impact of 4.3 % on Castletown and the difference between the two figures would be imperceptible in terms of the effect on the town centre's vitality and viability.
3.01 The foregoing analysis of trade diversion clearly demonstrates that the trading effects of the development on any individual centre would not be significant. This is because stores selling electrical goods and pet supplies are dispersed across the island, many in out-of-centre locations. The level of trade diversion from each centre represents only a fraction of the total retail turnover of that centre. 3.02 A comparison of the retail impact analysis from the 2010 Inquiry and the current assessment shows that the impact of the additional 107 sq.m. of retail floorspace proposed will be virtually imperceptible.
Retail Development, Spring Valley Estate, Cooil Road, Braddan Table 1: Turnovers of Centres
| | Convenience Goods | | | Comparison Goods | | | All Retail | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Sales Area (\mathrm{sq} . \mathrm{m}.) | Sales Density (\mathrm{E} / \mathrm{sq} . \mathrm{m}.) | Turnover (\mathrm{Em}) | Sales Area (\mathrm{sq} . \mathrm{m}.) | Sales Density (\mathrm{E} / \mathrm{sq} . \mathrm{m}.) | Turnover (\mathrm{Em}) | | | Douglas Town Centre | 8591 | 10000 | 85.91 | 24190 | 4000 | 96.758 | 182.66 | | Douglas Out of Centre | 4222 | 10000 | 42.22 | 8645 | 3000 | 25.934 | 68.16 | | Peel | 1789 | 10000 | 17.89 | 1958 | 3000 | 5.874 | 23.76 | | Castletown | 995 | 6000 | 5.97 | 369 | 3000 | 1.108 | 7.08 | | Ramsey | 2568 | 8000 | 28.54 | 4327 | 3000 | 12.980 | 41.52 | | Orphan | 1639 | 6000 | 9.84 | 1952 | 3000 | 5.857 | 15.69 | | Levey | 329 | 6000 | 1.97 | 343 | 3000 | 1.029 | 3.00 | | Port Erin | 2169 | 6000 | 13.01 | 1671 | 3000 | 5.012 | 18.03 | | Port St Mary | 179 | 6000 | 1.08 | 283 | 3000 | 0.849 | 1.93 | | Tynwald Hills | 60 | 6000 | 0.36 | 4034 | 4000 | 16.135 | 16.49 | | Others on Island | 1191 | 6000 | 7.14 | 1469 | 3000 | 4.406 | 11.55 |
Notes All sales area figures taken from Isle of Man Retailing Study 2009 (Tables 8.6 and 8.7) Sales Densities are WYG assumptions
Morbaine Ltd Retail Development, Spring Valley Estate, Cooil Road, Braddan Table 2: Estimated Turnover of Proposed Development
| | Sales Area (\mathrm{sq} . \mathrm{m}). | Sales Density (\mathrm{E} / \mathrm{sq} . \mathrm{m}). | Turnover (\mathrm{Em}) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Pets at Home | 635 | 2341 | 1.49 | | Currys | 1144 | 6260 | 7.16 |
Notes Sales densities are for Pets at Home and Currys taken from Mintel's Retail Rankings 2011 (2007 prices)
Retail Development, Spring Valley Estate, Cooil Road, Braddan Table 3: Trading Effects of Pets at Home
| | Turnover | Trade Draw | | Residual Turnover | Impact | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (£m) | % | (£m) | (£m) | (%) | | In Centre | | | | | | | Douglas Town Centre | 182.66 | 15 | 0.22 | 182.44 | -0.1 | | Peel | 23.76 | 10 | 0.15 | 23.61 | -0.6 | | Castletown | 7.08 | 0 | 0.00 | 7.08 | 0.0 | | Ramsey | 41.52 | 10 | 0.15 | 41.38 | -0.4 | | Onchan | 15.69 | 10 | 0.15 | 15.54 | -0.9 | | Laxey | 3.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.0 | | Port Erin | 18.03 | 10 | 0.15 | 17.88 | -0.8 | | Port St Mary | 1.93 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.93 | 0.0 | | Out of Centre | | | | | | | Douglas Out of Centre | 68.16 | 20 | 0.30 | 67.86 | -0.4 | | Tynwald Mills | 16.49 | 10 | 0.15 | 16.35 | -0.9 | | Others on Island | 11.55 | 15 | 0.22 | 11.33 | -1.9 | | Total | | 100 | 1.49 | | |
Notes Trade draw estimates for pet supplies retailers are the same used at 2010 Inquiry
Retail Development, Spring Valley Estate, Cooil Road, Braddan Table 4: Trading Effects of Currys
| | Turnover (\mathrm{Em}) | Trade Draw | | Residual Turnover (\mathrm{Em}) | Impact (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | In Centre | | | | | | | Douglas Town Centre | 182.66 | 40 | 2.86 | 179.80 | -1.6 | | Peel | 23.76 | 5 | 0.36 | 23.41 | -1.5 | | Castletown | 7.08 | 5 | 0.36 | 6.72 | -5.1 | | Ramsey | 41.52 | 15 | 1.07 | 40.45 | -2.6 | | Onchan | 15.69 | 0 | 0.00 | 15.69 | 0.0 | | Laxey | 3.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.0 | | Port Erin | 18.03 | 5 | 0.36 | 17.67 | -2.0 | | Port St Mary | 1.93 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.93 | 0.0 | | Out of Centre | | | | | | | Douglas Out of Centre | 68.16 | 10 | 0.72 | 67.44 | -1.1 | | Tynwald Mills | 16.49 | 0 | 0.00 | 16.49 | 0.0 | | Others on Island | 11.55 | 10 | 0.72 | 10.83 | -6.2 | | Internet / Mainland Stores | | 10 | 0.72 | | | | Total | | 100 | 7.16 | | |
Notes Trade draw for electrical goods retailers are the same used at 2010 Inquiry
Retail Development, Spring Valley Estate, Cooil Road, Braddan Table 5: Combined Trading Effects
| | Trade Diversion to Pets at Home (£m) | Trade Diversion to Currys (£m) | Combined Trade Diversion of Two Units (£m) | Turnover Before Development (£m) | Residual Turnover (£m) | Impact of Current Proposals (%) | Assessed Impact at 2010 Inquiry (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | In Centre | | | | | | | | | Douglas Town Centre | 0.22 | 2.86 | 3.09 | 182.66 | 179.58 | -1.7 | -1.2 | | Peel | 0.15 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 23.76 | 23.26 | -2.1 | -1.8 | | Castletown | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 7.08 | 6.72 | -5.1 | -4.3 | | Ramsey | 0.15 | 1.07 | 1.22 | 41.52 | 40.30 | -2.9 | -2.5 | | Onchan | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 15.69 | 15.54 | -0.9 | -1.7 | | Laxey | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.0 | -4.3 | | Port Erin | 0.15 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 18.03 | 17.52 | -2.8 | -2.3 | | Port St Mary | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 0.0 | -3.1 | | Out of Centre | | | | | | | | | Douglas Out of Centre | 0.30 | 0.72 | 1.01 | 68.16 | 67.14 | -1.5 | -2.6 | | Tynwald Mills | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 16.49 | 16.35 | -0.9 | -2.1 | | Others on Island | 0.22 | 0.72 | 0.94 | 11.55 | 10.61 | -8.1 | -9.1 |
Notes At the 2010 Inquiry, a range of impact figures was produced to assess the different combinations of goods which may be sold from the unit The figures presented above in respect of the 2010 Inquiry are the 'worst case scenario' figures for each tow
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